Why Didn't Coulsdon, Purley, or Chipstead Experience a Housing Market Crash in 2023?

Let's take at look at the upbeat performance of the Coulsdon, Purley & Chipstead property market in 2023. There were of course challenges, but despite this, our town's housing sector has proven its resilience and left us in a good position for 2024.

At the start of 2023, there were whispers in the wind about a significant drop in house prices. The Halifax predicted an 8% decrease, Savills said it could be 10%, and Nomura Bank went with a 15% prediction. But guess what? Against all odds, the Land Registry reported an increase 0.5% Checking out the local figures for Coulsdon, Purley & Chipstead.

So here you go, prices in Coulsdon, Purley & Chipstead are down only 2.9% lower than a year ago.

Moving to the final quarter of 2023, which saw above-average levels of sales in the UK – a remarkable 11.1% higher than the previous year. What's even more exciting is a huge drop in sales falling through, going from 75,033 in Q4 2022 to 56,761 in Q4 2023.

Let's zoom into the Coulsdon, Purley & Chipstead (CR5) (CR8) market..

90 properties had a sale agreed in Q4 2022, but out of those, 36 sales fell through, meaning 54 net property sales.

Now, let's  forward to Q4 2023, there were 117 properties which had a sale agreed, with just 30 falling through, leading to 87 net property sales.

This high level of activity is a testament to the enduring value and attraction of homeownership.

Market confidence seems to be high, thanks to rising incomes and an initial dip in mortgage rates, making property investment more feasible. Demand is up by an amazing 19%, according to Zoopla's property searches, and 20.7% more available properties for sale which has given buyers a delightful array of choices.

This harmonious dance of pricing alignment between buyers and sellers has cast a spell, reducing the downward pressure on values.

So, you might be wondering – why didn't Coulsdon, Purley, or Chipstead house prices do the anticipated fall of 8% to 15% in 2023?

Despite mortgage rates increasing from just over 2% to over 6% in the last two years, house prices defied the odds. And here's the secret ingredient and its a combo of varying factors:

  1. Labour Market & Earnings: The UK's robust labour market and an increase of  7.3% in growth in average earnings gave households the financial cushion needed to keep up with mortgage repayments.
  2. Lender Help: Lenders stepped up with some help, adopting policies to support households in tough times. This reduced the number of forced sellers and helped to keep the market steady.
  3. Mortgage Stress Testing: The unsung hero here is the stricter mortgage affordability ‘stress testing’ introduced since April 2014. This has helped to ensure the housing market steady and ensure that a crash is not on the horizon.

Now, moving to 2024. As an estate agent involved in the vibrant vibes of Coulsdon, Purley, and Chipstead, I've witnessed our local market embracing this national resilience. Regulatory constraints on buying power have turned out to be more like a steady hand guiding demand for quality homes.

First-time buyers are still here but with more caution. They're adapting to the economic rhythm by choosing smaller homes, and guess what? Rising rental prices are giving them an extra nudge, too.

Looking ahead, while base rates may start to change a little in 2024, regulatory constraints suggest that house prices are more likely to move gently downwards by 1% to 3%, rather than taking a nosedive.  Although I believe that the market will actually stabalise locally and prices will remain fairly level.

For homeowners and prospective buyers, this is your time! A slight ease in mortgage rates might just be the confidence boost needed to make those property dreams a reality.

To all the wonderful homeowners considering a move in 2024, let's make it an adventure! With a deep understanding of our local and national property landscape, I'm here to guide you through every exciting step of your property journey. Whether you're looking to buy, sell, or just have a friendly chat about your options, I'm just a message away. Let's navigate your future move in the Coulsdon, Purley, or Chipstead property market together! 🏡✨